Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - European Central Bank - 2003
situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … increased, we find that, as of September 2002, with the exception of Japan there is no evidence of substantial deflation risks …. We also put the estimates of deflation risk for the United States, Germany and Japan into historical perspective. We find …