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The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area
Forsells, Magnus; Kenny, Geoff - European Central Bank - 2002
This paper uses survey data to assess consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area. The probability approach is … used to derive quantitative estimates of inflation expectations from the European Commission's Consumer Survey. The paper … subsequently analyses the empirical properties of the estimated inflation expectations by considering the extent to which they …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530749
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Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?
Hofmann, Boris - European Central Bank - 2008
indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222333
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The information content of M3 for future inflation
Trecroci, Carmine; Vega, Juan Luis - European Central Bank - 2000
The information content of broad money M3 for future GDP inflation in the euro area is investigated from a number of … real M3 holdings, real GDP, inflation and short- and long-term interest rates. Secondly, this empirical framework is … predictive power for future inflation. And thirdly, the P-star type of model developed is compared with an existing rival model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816264
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Labour supply and incentives to work in Europe
Gómez Salvador, Ramón (contributor) - What explains the pattern of labour supply in Europe … - 2005
Labour Supply and Incentives to Work in Europe highlights recent developments in the labour supply in Europe and gives a detailed assessment of their link with economic policies and labour market institutions. Despite major changes in European labour supply during the past few decades, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011851054
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Fiscal data revisions in Europe
de Castro Fernández, Francisco; Pérez, Javier J.; … - European Central Bank - 2011
Public deficit figures are subject to revisions, as most macroeconomic aggregates are. Nevertheless, in the case of Europe, the latter could be particularly worrisome given the role of fiscal data in the functioning of EU’s multilateral surveillance rules. Adherence to such rules is judged...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024965
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Modelling short-term interest rate spreads in the euro money market
Cassola, Nuno; Morana, Claudio - European Central Bank - 2008
In the framework of a new money market econometric model, we assess the degree of precision achieved by the European Central Bank ECB) in meeting its operational target for the short-term interest rate and the impact of the U.S. sub-prime credit crisis on the euro money market during the second...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344818
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Imports and profitability in the euro area manufacturing sector: the role of emerging market economies
Peltonen, Tuomas A.; Skala, Martin; Santos Rivera, Alvaro; … - European Central Bank - 2008
The paper analyses the impact of import penetration on firms’ profitability in 15 manufacturing industries in 10 euro area countries during 1995-2004, focusing on the role of emerging market economies. Our results indicate that import competition from emerging market economies has had an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344831
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An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area
Fagan, Gabriel; Henry, Jérôme; Mestre, Ricardo - European Central Bank - 2001
This paper presents a quarterly estimated structural macroeconomic model for the euro area, denoted area-wide model (AWM). This model has been developed with four uses in mind: the assessment of economic conditions in the area, macroeconomic forecasting, policy analysis and deepening...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344849
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US, Japan and the euro area: comparing business-cycle features
McAdam, Peter - European Central Bank - 2003
There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344860
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Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model
Coenen, Günter; McAdam, Peter; Straub, Roland - European Central Bank - 2007
In this paper, we employ a calibrated two-country version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) currently under development at the European Central Bank to examine the potential benefits and spillovers of reducing labour-market distortions caused by euro area tax structures. Our analysis shows that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344892