assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …

Under inflation targeting inflation exhibits negative serial correlation in the United Kingdom, and little or no …, inflation appears to be (nearly) purely forward-looking, so that no mechanism introducing backward-looking components is … necessary to fit the data. These results question the notion that the intrinsic inflation persistence found in post-WWII U …

We study the low frequency comovements in unemployment, inflation and the federal funds rate in the U.S. From 1970 … buildup of inflation in the 1970's is that the Fed reacted to an increase in the natural rate of unemployment by conducting an … fed funds rate and inflation. We argue instead that the source of the inflation buildup in the 1970's was a downward drift …

which induce smooth inflation also dampen the adjustment of wages in response to shocks. In the search and matching … Phillips curve is that inflation is not only driven by an output gap but also by an employment gap – a feature usually …

wage and price dynamics. Recent empirical implementations stress the idea that these models link inflation to the behavior … declining inflation and labor shares in euro area. In this paper, we show that with realistic parameters, the canonical Calvo …

predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

maker: It produces more accurate forecasts of inflation and more precise estimates of the NAIRU. JEL Classification: C22, E …

Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing … the low-inflation policy recommended by a natural rate model even after economists had developed statistical evidence … inflation rate in light of updated probabilities that it assigns to three competing models of the Phillips curve. Cautious …

empirical work is illustrated by two applications to euro area data on inflation, output and interest rates. JEL Classification …