assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …

empirical work is illustrated by two applications to euro area data on inflation, output and interest rates. JEL Classification …

indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …

The information content of broad money M3 for future GDP inflation in the euro area is investigated from a number of … real M3 holdings, real GDP, inflation and short- and long-term interest rates. Secondly, this empirical framework is … predictive power for future inflation. And thirdly, the P-star type of model developed is compared with an existing rival model …

inflation and output play an important role. This paper illustrates how modern sticky-price dynamic stochastic general … distribution of the forecast, as well as various inflation risk measures that have been proposed in the literature. Finally, the …

We study the convergence of European bond markets and the anchoring of inflation expectations in euro area countries … substantial increase in the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations since EMU, particularly for Italy and Spain, which since …