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Equilibrium correction models of the price level are often used to model inflation. Such models assume that the long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005079101
Forecasting the world economy is a di¢ cult task given the complex interre-lationships within and across countries. This paper proposes a number ofapproaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic vari-ables and aims, …rst, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866572
model of inflation determination estimated on the Czech data.We characterize the estimated components of CPI, WPI and import …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162924
In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core inflation estimation, based on a frequency domain … principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation … measure is the scaled common persistent factor in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816199
We examine two measures of core inflation which have been proposed in recent years: the limited-influence estimators of … core inflation pioneered by Bryan and Cecchetti (1994); and the Edgeworth or variance-weighted price index discussed by … two criteria: their ability to track movements in trend inflation; and their ability to predict future headline inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816242
This paper reviews various approaches to the measurement of core inflation that have been proposed in recent years. The … objective is to determine whether the ECB should pay special attention to one or other of these measures in assessing inflation … core inflation, and propose some criteria that could be used by the ECB to choose a core inflation measure. JEL …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162879
We propose a new core inflation measure for the Euro area which places the emphasis on the more lasting, i …. Unlike headline inflation, our baseline core inflation measure is highly correlated with ECB monetary policy decisions, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530797
This paper studies optimal monetary policy responses in an economy featuring sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price adjustments. It shows that a central bank facing heterogeneous nominal rigidities is more likely to behave less aggressively than in a fully sticky economy. Hence, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530877
This study investigates the dynamics of the sovereign CDS term premium for five European countries. The CDS term premium can be regarded as a forward-looking measure of idiosyncratic sovereign default risk as perceived by financial markets. Using a Markov-switching unobserved component model, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011067237
This paper presents a new framework allowing strategic investors to generate yield curve projections contingent on expectations about future macroeconomic scenarios. By consistently linking the shape and location of yield curves to the state of the economy our method generates predictions for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222328