show that country specific indicators play a much smaller role. We detect di?erences across business cycle phases but …

Indices (PMI) in anticipating US real economic activity. We conduct a fully-fledged real-time out-ofsample forecasting … indicators convey valuable information for assessing current economic conditions. The SPF clearly outperforms the PMI in … forecasting GDP growth, while it performs quite poorly in anticipating industrial production growth. Combining the information …

forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the role of dataset …

content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and monitoring purposes. The models are estimated with annual and …

real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An … proposes to bridge this gap. Using four years of data vintages for euro area conjunctural indicators, the paper decomposes … forecast errors into four elements (model specification, erroneous extrapolations of the monthly indicators, revisions to the …

forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor …. For most of the components, we report that factor models yield lower forecasting errors than a simple AR process or an … indicator model based on Purchasing Managers' Indicators (PMIs). In line with previous studies, we conclude that the largest …