How do financial markets price new information? This paper analyzes price setting atthe intersection of private and public information, by testing whether and how thereaction of financial markets to public signals depends on the relative importance ofprivate information in agents’ information...

Recent interest in ‘Risk Management’ has highlighted the relevance of Bayesian analysis for robust monetary- policy making. This paper sets out a comprehensive methodology for designing policy rules inspired by such considerations. We design rules that are robust with respect to model...

The increasing weight of open market transactions in central bank operations and the widening use of purchase agreements underlines a progress towards convergence of monetary policy instruments and procedures in EU countries. This paper presents a survey of features of open market operations...

This paper provides empirical evidence on the use of monetary policy instruments and procedures (MPIP) in EU countries. In particular, it focuses on three important issues which arise in this context. Fist, we examine the structural position of the EU money markets. Second , evidence is...

Building on the New Area Wide Model, we develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions...

In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical...

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that...

The model presented here is a New estimated medium-scale Multi-Country Model (NMCM) which covers the five largest euro area countries and is used for forecasting and scenarios analysis at the European Central Bank. The model has a tight theoretical structure which allows for non-unitary...

The model presented here is an estimated medium-scale model for the United States (US) economy developed to forecast and analyse policy issues for the US. The model is specified to track the deviation of the medium- run developments from the balanced-growth-path via an estimated CES production...

In this paper, we outline a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the (Broad) Macroeconomic Projection Exercises regularly undertaken by ECB/Eurosystem staff. We present estimation results for the NAWM that are obtained by employing Bayesian inference...