The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a … novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 … basis points between the best and worst-performers across the sample. This heterogeneity is found to be related to both the …

involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand … countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …

heterogeneity across countries and that the reactions of the economies to shocks depends strongly on whether the shocks are pre …

The model presented here is an estimated medium-scale model for the United States (US) economy developed to forecast …