This paper introduces a new indicator of contemporaneous stress in the financial system named Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS). Its specific statistical design is shaped according to standard definitions of systemic risk. The main methodological innovation of the CISS is the...

We analyze the interaction between credit and asset prices in the transmission of shocks to the real economy. We estimate a Markov switching VAR for the euro area and the US, including additionally GDP, CPI and a short-term interest rate. We find evidence for two distinct states in both regions....

This paper introduces a new indicator of contemporaneous stress in the financial system named Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS). Its specific statistical design is shaped according to standard definitions of systemic risk. The main methodological innovation of the CISS is the...

This paper analyses the impact of the shift away from a US dollar focus of systemically important emerging market economies (EMEs) on configurations between the US dollar, the euro and the yen. Given the difficulty that fixed or managed US dollar exchange rate regimes remain pervasive and...

This paper investigates the extent to which the slope of the yield curve in emerging economies predicts domestic inflation and growth. It also examines international financial linkages and how the US and the euro area yield curves help to predict. It finds that the domestic yield curve in...

This paper assesses the prospects for monetary integration between Emerging East Asian (EEA) economies. Our empirical analysis is based on a simple analytical framework for currency unions of small open economies, with a focus on the conduct of monetary policy in the presence of different types...

In recent years there has been considerable variation in savings patterns across countries and regions, with implications for the configuration of global current account balances, asset valuations and real interest rates. This paper looks at the empirical drivers behind these trends. It uses a...

This paper investigates whether, and if so why, the recent ‘Great Recession’ was more severe in unofficially dollarised/euroised economies than in other economies. To that end, the paper builds on a novel dataset on unofficial dollarisation/euroisation to test whether the latter was a...