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Risks to price stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: a real-time assessment
Coenen, Günter; Warne, Anders - European Central Bank - 2013
in the risk balance throughout our evaluation period because of the implied amplification of deflation risks. We then …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010693493
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The central bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting inflation risks
Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - European Central Bank - 2003
forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have … increased, we find that, as of September 2002, with the exception of Japan there is no evidence of substantial deflation risks …. We also put the estimates of deflation risk for the United States, Germany and Japan into historical perspective. We find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530801
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The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts
Ehrmann, Michael; Eijffinger, Sylvester; Fratzscher, Marcel - European Central Bank - 2010
There is a broad consensus in the literature that costs of information processing and acquisition may generate costly disagreements in expectations among economic agents, and that central banks may play a central role in reducing such dispersion in expectations. This paper analyses empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008545908
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What measure of inflation should a central bank target?
Mankiw, N. Gregory; Reis, Ricardo - European Central Bank - 2002
This paper assumes that a central bank commits itself to maintaining an inflation target and then asks what measure of the inflation rate the central bank should use if it wants to maximize economic stability. The paper first formalizes this problem and examines its microeconomic foundations. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344841
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Forecasting the central bank’s inflation objective is a good rule of thumb
Diron, Marie; Mojon, Benoît - European Central Bank - 2005
This paper first shows that the forecast error incurred when assuming that future inflation will be equal to the inflation target announced by the central bank is typically at least as small and often smaller than forecast errors of model-based and published inflation forecasts. It then shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222363
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The European Monetary Union as a commitment device for new EU member states
Ravenna, Federico - European Central Bank - 2005
This paper shows that the credibility gain from permanently committing to a fixed exchange rate by joining the European Monetary Union can outweigh the loss from giving up independent monetary policy. When the central bank enjoys only limited credibility a pegged exchange rate regime yields a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222375
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Nominal and real interest rates during an optimal disinflation in New Keynesian models.
Hagedorn, Marcus - European Central Bank - 2008
Central bankers’ conventional wisdom suggests that nominal interest rates should be raised to implement a lower inflation target. In contrast, I show that the standard New Keynesian monetary model predicts that nominal interest rates should be decreased to attain this goal. Real interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530895
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optimal monetary Policy in a new keynesian model with habits in consumption
Leith, Campbell; Moldovan, Ioana; Rossi, Raffaele - European Central Bank - 2009
While consumption habits have been utilised as a means of generating a hump shapedoutput response to monetary policy shocks in sticky-price New Keynesian economies,there is relatively little analysis of the impact of habits (particularly, external habits) onoptimal policy. In this paper we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866485