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Evaluating China’s integration in world trade with a gravity model based benchmark
Bussière, Matthieu; Schnatz, Bernd - European Central Bank - 2006
The rapid transition of China from a closed agricultural society to an industrial powerhouse has been associated with a … rapid increase in the share of China in world trade. As the world is taking the full measure of this phenomenon, tensions … have been arising ranging from holding China partly responsible for global imbalances to complaints about the “excessive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005531009
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Spatial dependence in commercial property prices: micro evidence from the Netherlands
Özyurt, Selin - European Central Bank - 2014
Following a hedonic framework, this paper constructs various transaction-based commercial property price indicators for the Netherlands. Using quarterly data from the Investment Property Databank (IPD), the analysis covers a total of 10,000 listed properties over the period 2001-2011. The study...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010753749
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Can non-linear real shocks explain the persistence of PPP exchange rate disequilibria?
Peltonen, Tuomas A.; Popescu, Adina; Sager, Michael - European Central Bank - 2009
A core stylized fact of the empirical exchange rate literature is that half-life deviationsof equilibrium real exchange rates from levels implied by Purchasing Power Parity(PPP) are very persistent. Empirical efforts to explain this persistence typicallyproceed along two distinct paths,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866489
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Does private equity investment spur innovation? Evidence from Europe
Popov, Alexander; Roosenboom, Peter - European Central Bank - 2009
We provide the first cross-country evidence of the effect of investment by privateequity firms on innovation, focusing on a sample of European countries and usingKortum and Lerner’s (2000) empirical methodology. Using an 18-country panelcovering the period 1991-2004, we study how private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866520
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Fiscal behaviour in the European Union: rules, fiscal decentralization and government indebtedness
Afonso, António; Hauptmeier, Sebastian - European Central Bank - 2009
We assess the fiscal behaviour in the European Union countries for the period 1990-2005 via the responsiveness of budget balances to several determinants. The resultsshow that the existence of effective fiscal rules, the degree of public spendingdecentralization, and the electoral cycle can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866594
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Productivity shocks and real exchange rate: a reappraisal
Peltonen, Tuomas A.; Sager, Michael - European Central Bank - 2009
We reappraise the relationship between productivity and equilibrium real exchangerates using a panel estimation framework that incorporates a large number ofcountries and importantly, a dataset that allows explicit consideration of the role ofnon-traded, as well as traded, sector productivity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866628
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The role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production: perspective from large panel factor models
Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Maurin, Laurent - European Central Bank - 2008
forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the role of dataset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344872
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Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillane in Europe?
Pedregal, Diego J.; Pérez, Javier J. - European Central Bank - 2008
content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and monitoring purposes. The models are estimated with annual and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344878
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Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data
Diron, Marie - European Central Bank - 2006
Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344945
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Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments
Joyce, Michael; Relleen, Jonathan; Sorensen, Steffen - European Central Bank - 2008
This paper reviews the main instruments and associated yield curves that can be used to measure financial market participants’ expectations of future UK monetary policy rates. We attempt to evaluate these instruments and curves in terms of their ability to forecast policy rates over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344961