This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than …-based measure of ”news” from each data release and subsequently to assess its impact on the forecast revision. The paper provides an … illustrative example of this procedure. Overall, the results show that these data improve forecast accuracy over models that …

This paper presents a parsimonious model for forecasting and analysing euro area house prices and their interrelations …

We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … point in time, the ProbVAR allows to generate conditional recession probabilities for any sequence of forecast horizons. At … short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United …

essentially requires the assessment of the impact of new data on the subsequent forecast revisions for the target variable. We … data releases and the resulting forecast revisions. To illustrate our ideas, we study the nowcast of euro area GDP in the …

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead … results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is an empirical issue. Empirical results in the literature often … go unexplained. This leaves forecasters in the dark when confronted with the option of forecast aggregation. We take our …

parametric discrete time series models estimated with Bayesian methods. The subset of variables may vary across forecast horizons … distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …

very similar estimates. I also test the performance of the different growth estimates in an out of sample forecasting …

Indices (PMI) in anticipating US real economic activity. We conduct a fully-fledged real-time out-ofsample forecasting … forecasting GDP growth, while it performs quite poorly in anticipating industrial production growth. Combining the information … included in both surveys further improves the accuracy of both, the PMI and the SPF-based forecast. JEL Classification: E37, E …