assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …

We study the low frequency comovements in unemployment, inflation and the federal funds rate in the U.S. From 1970 … buildup of inflation in the 1970's is that the Fed reacted to an increase in the natural rate of unemployment by conducting an … in the real interest rate that was translated into a simultaneous increase in unemployment and inflation by passive Fed …

which induce smooth inflation also dampen the adjustment of wages in response to shocks. In the search and matching … Phillips curve is that inflation is not only driven by an output gap but also by an employment gap – a feature usually …

wage and price dynamics. Recent empirical implementations stress the idea that these models link inflation to the behavior … declining inflation and labor shares in euro area. In this paper, we show that with realistic parameters, the canonical Calvo …

predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

This paper studies the role of long-term unemployment in the determination of prices and wages. Labor market theories … propose a new specification of the Phillips Curve that contains different unemployment lengths in a time-varying NAIRU setting …. This is done by constructing an index of unemployment that assigns different weights to the unemployed based on the length …

Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing … the low-inflation policy recommended by a natural rate model even after economists had developed statistical evidence … inflation rate in light of updated probabilities that it assigns to three competing models of the Phillips curve. Cautious …