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The interday and intraday patterns of the overnight market: evidence from an electronic platform

Beaupain, Renaud; Durré, Alain - European Central Bank - 2008

This paper examines the interday and intraday dynamics of the euro area overnight money market on the basis of an original set of market activity and liquidity proxies constructed from both pre- and post-trade data. The empirical literature provides extensive evidence supporting the rejection of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005025573

Do financial market variables show (symmetric) indicator properties relative to exchange rate returns?

Castrén, Olli - European Central Bank - 2004

This paper assesses the contemporaneous, leading and lagging indicator properties of financial market variables relative to movements in six major developed country currency pairs. As indicator variables changes in various relative asset prices, short-term portfolio flows and currency options...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816256

Price and trading response to public information

Grothe, Magdalena - European Central Bank - 2010

In their seminal paper French and Roll (1986) postulate that public information affects prices before anyone can trade on it. In contrast, several models assuming heterogeneous investors show that public news releases are directly followed by high trading volume. Empirical evidence on this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008476137

Nonlinear liquidity adjustments in the euro area overnight money market

Beaupain, Renaud; Durré, Alain - European Central Bank - 2012

The market-oriented approach promoted by the European Central Bank in the design of its refinancing operations creates incentives to credit insitutions to use actively the interbank market to manage their liquidity needs. In this context, we examine the ability of the overnight segment to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686861

The role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production: perspective from large panel factor models

Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Maurin, Laurent - European Central Bank - 2008

forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the role of dataset …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344872

Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillane in Europe?

Pedregal, Diego J.; Pérez, Javier J. - European Central Bank - 2008

content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and monitoring purposes. The models are estimated with annual and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344878

Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data

Diron, Marie - European Central Bank - 2006

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344945

Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments

Joyce, Michael; Relleen, Jonathan; Sorensen, Steffen - European Central Bank - 2008

This paper reviews the main instruments and associated yield curves that can be used to measure financial market participants’ expectations of future UK monetary policy rates. We attempt to evaluate these instruments and curves in terms of their ability to forecast policy rates over the period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344961

Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models

Godbout, Claudia; Lombardi, Marco J. - European Central Bank - 2012

forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor …. For most of the components, we report that factor models yield lower forecasting errors than a simple AR process or an … improvements in terms of forecasting accuracy are found for more volatile periods, such as the recent financial crisis. However …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010538810

Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics

Bermingham, Colin; D’Agostino, Antonello - European Central Bank - 2011

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009228752