The paper provides an analysis of the euro area money and bond markets and their infrastructure since the introduction of the euro. Significant development in terms of integration took place in both markets in general to a various degree for the different segments. However, there remain room for...

The main objective of this paper is to study whether the introduction of the euro hadan impact on the degree of integration of European Government bond markets. Weadopt the CAPM-based model of Bekaert and Harvey (1995) to compare, from thebeginning of Monetary Union until June 2008, the...

In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical...

The paper analyses the drivers of sovereign risk for 31 advanced and emerging economies during the European sovereign debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries’ fundamentals and fundamentals contagion – a sharp rise in the sensitivity of financial markets to fundamentals –...

This paper contributes to the literature on liquidity crises and central banks acting as lenders of last resort by capturing the mechanics of dual liquidity crises, i.e. funding crises which encompass both the private and the public sector, within a closed system of financial accounts. We...

This paper aims to make two contributions: to review the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures in response to the financial and sovereign debt crisis against the background of the institutional framework and financial structure of the euro area; and to interpret this response from a...

The paper analyses the transmission of liquidity shocks and risk shocks to global financial markets. Using a Global VAR methodology, the findings reveal fundamental differences in the transmission strength and pattern between the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2010-11 sovereign debt crisis....

This paper studies the determinants of the euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis, allowing a role for macroeconomic fundamentals, policy actions and the public debate by policy makers. It finds that the euro exchange rate mainly danced to its own tune, with a particularly...

Taking a cue from the assertion that “loose lips sink markets” (Carmassi and Micossi, 2010), this paper investigates to what extent and why political communication has had an impact on the sovereign bond spreads of selected euro area countries over the German Bund. Drawing on 25,000 news...

This paper examines the degree of fragmentation in the Euro overnight unsecured money market during the period June 2008 – August 2013 using interbank loans constructed from payments data. After controlling for cross-country differences in bank risk, we document several episodes of significant...