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Optimal monetary policy rules for the euro area: an analysis using the area wide model

Dieppe, Alistair; Kuester, Keith; McAdam, Peter - European Central Bank - 2004

In this paper, we analyze optimal monetary policy rules in a model of the euro area, namely the ECB’s Area Wide Model, which embodies a high degree of intrinsic persistence and a limited role for forward-looking expectations. These features allow us, in large measure, to differentiate our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004999742

The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area

Forsells, Magnus; Kenny, Geoff - European Central Bank - 2002

fulfil some of the necessary conditions for rationality. The results suggest an intermediate form of rationality. In …, there is also evidence of 'growing' rationality over the 1990s compared with the 1980s. JEL Classification: D12, D84, E31 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530749

Fiscal data revisions in Europe

de Castro Fernández, Francisco; Pérez, Javier J.; … - European Central Bank - 2011

Public deficit figures are subject to revisions, as most macroeconomic aggregates are. Nevertheless, in the case of Europe, the latter could be particularly worrisome given the role of fiscal data in the functioning of EU’s multilateral surveillance rules. Adherence to such rules is judged...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024965

Real-time model uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003

Tetlow, Robert J.; Ironside, Brian - European Central Bank - 2006

compare these optimal rules against plausible alternatives. Model uncertainty is shown to be a substantial problem; the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344946

Characterizing very high uncertainty episodes

Bijsterbosch, Martin; Guérin, Pierre - European Central Bank - 2014

episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second …, we assess the behaviour of macroeconomic and financial variables during these episodes of very high uncertainty. This … markets. We find that very high uncertainty episodes are associated with a weaker growth performance and sharp declines in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010753752

Currency mismatch, uncertainty and debt maturity structure

Bussière, Matthieu; Fratzscher, Marcel; Koeniger, Winfried - European Central Bank - 2004

. An important feature of the model is that higher economic or political uncertainty tightens solvency constraints and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162930

Optimal discretionary policy and uncertainty about inflation persistence

Moessner, Richhild - European Central Bank - 2005

This paper studies optimal discretionary policy with parameter uncertainty about inflation inertia. Optimal policy … in the presence of uncertainty about inflation inertia, depending on the form of the central bank’s objective function …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530896

Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy

Ehrmann, Michael; Smets, Frank - European Central Bank - 2001

optimally estimated. Third, the implications of potential output uncertainty for the optimal delegation to an independent …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530904

Inflation persistence and monetary policy design: an overview

Levin, Andrew T.; Moessner, Richhild - European Central Bank - 2005

How monetary policy should be set optimally when the structure of the economy exhibits inflation persistence is an important question for policy makers. This paper provides an overview of the implications of inflation persistence for the design of monetary policy. JEL Classification: E52, E58

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530971

Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy

Bekaert, Geert; Hoerova, Marie; Lo Duca, Marco - European Central Bank - 2013

(“uncertainty”), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686747