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Maintaining low inflation: money, interest rates, and policy stance
Reynard, Samuel - European Central Bank - 2007
qualitative and quantitative information on subsequent inflation. The usefulness of monetary analysis is contrasted to weaknesses … in modeling monetary policy and inflation with respectively short-term interest rates and real activity measures. The … analysis sheds light on the recent change in inflation volatility and persistence as well as on the Phillips curve flattening …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530771
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Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?
Cristadoro, Riccardo; Venditti, Fabrizio; Saporito, Giuseppe - European Central Bank - 2008
the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530864
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Are policy counterfactuals based on structural VAR's reliable?
Benati, Luca - European Central Bank - 2010
-form) properties of the economy. Based on estimated models for the Great Inflation and the most recent period, I show that, as a … played by monetary policy in exacerbating the Great Depression, causing the Great Inflation, or fostering the Great …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008516221
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Towards a robust monetary policy rule for the euro area
Blattner, Tobias; Margaritov, Emil - European Central Bank - 2010
Estimations of simple monetary policy rules are often very rigid. Standard practice requires that a decision is made as to which indicators the central bank is assumed to respond to, ignoring the data-rich environment in which policy-makers typically form their decisions. However, the choice of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008553111
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Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area
Gerdesmeier, Dieter; Roffia, Barbara - European Central Bank - 2003
use of different measures of the output gap and the inflation term, can better track the interest rate setting in the euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816162
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Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy
Juillard, Michel; Karam, Philippe; Laxton, Douglas; … - European Central Bank - 2006
We develop and estimate a stylized micro-founded model of the US economy. Next we compute the parameters of a simple interest rate policy rule that maximizes the unconditional mean of utility. We show that such a welfare-based rule lies close to the Taylor efficiency frontier. A counterfactual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005025577
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The effects of monetary policy on unemployment dynamics under model uncertainty: evidence from the US and the euro area
Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - European Central Bank - 2009
This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008480910
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Monetary policy rules in the pre-EMU era: Is there a common rule?
Eleftheriou, Maria; Gerdesmeier, Dieter; Roffia, Barbara - European Central Bank - 2006
Despite the great importance and final success of the convergence process that led to the establishment of the European Monetary Union, there is no clear agreement regarding the monetary policy pursued in the member countries during the convergence process. This paper contributes to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005033413
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Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment
Bayoumi, Tamim; Laxton, Douglas; Pesenti, Paolo - European Central Bank - 2004
Using a general-equilibrium simulation model featuring nominal rigidities and monopolistic competition in product and labor markets, this paper estimates the macroeconomic benefits and international spillovers of an increase in competition. After calibrating the model to the euro area vs. the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222315
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National prices and wage setting in a currency union
Sánchez, Marcelo - European Central Bank - 2009
Existing work on wage bargaining (as exemplified by Cukierman and Lippi, 2001) typicallypredicts more aggressive wage setting under monetary union. This insight has not beenconfirmed by the EMU experience, which has been characterised by wage moderation,thereby eliciting criticism from Posen and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866574