This paper analyses the importance of common factors in shaping non-fuel commodityprice movements for the period 1957-2008. For this purpose, a dynamic factor modelis estimated using Kalman Filtering techniques. Based on this set-up we are able toseparate common and idiosyncratic developments of...

Amid the recent commodity price gyrations, policy makers have become increasinglyconcerned in assessing to what extent oil and food price shocks transmit to theinflationary outlook and the real economy. In this paper, we try to tackle this issue bymeans of a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR)...

Using the 2007-2009 financial crisis as a laboratory, we analyze the transmission of crises to country-industry equity portfolios in 55 countries. We use an asset pricing framework with global and local factors to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings as...

This paper develops a broad concept of systemic risk, the basic economic concept for the understanding of financial crises. It is claimed that any such concept must integrate systemic events in banking and financial markets as well as in the related payment and settlement systems. At the heart...

This paper introduces a new indicator of contemporaneous stress in the financial system named Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS). Its specific statistical design is shaped according to standard definitions of systemic risk. The main methodological innovation of the CISS is the...

The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional representation of a...

This paper analyzes the efficiency of risk-taking decisions in an economy that is prone to systemic risk, captured by financial amplification effects that occur in response to strong adverse shocks. It shows that decentralized agents who have unconstrained access to a complete set of Arrow...

This paper tests financial contagion due to interbank linkages. For identification we exploit an idiosyncratic, sudden shock caused by a large-bank failure in conjunction with detailed data on interbank exposures. First, we find robust evidence that higher interbank exposure to the failed bank...

This paper derives indicators of the severity and structure of banking system risk from asymptotic interdependencies between banks’ equity prices. We use new tools available from multivariate extreme value theory to estimate individual banks’ exposure to each other (“contagion risk”) and...

Custody is, in essence, a service consisting in holding (and normally administering) securities on behalf of third parties. In step with the growth of sophisticated financial markets, custody has evolved into a complex industry no longer characterised by physical safekeeping but by a range of...