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This paper proposes a new econometric approach to disentangle two distinct response patterns of the yield curve to monetary policy announcements. Based on cojumps in intraday tick-data of a short and long term interest rate, we develop a day-wise test that detects the occurrence of a significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301874
inflation expectations in the two currency areas before and during the crisis. We find a somewhat stronger anchoring of … inflation expectations in the euro area than in the United States. During the crisis, the degree of anchoring of inflation … expectations did not change in the euro area, but it decreased to some extent in the United States. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301859
expectations. In contrast to other measures of expected inflation, such as for experts or financial market participants, consumers …' inflation expectations capture the broader distribution of societal beliefs about inflation. This research has revealed very … significant deviations from traditional assumptions about rationality in consumers' expectations formation. However, households do …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015276479
We analyse the forecasting power of different monetary aggregates and credit variables for US GDP. Special attention is paid to the influence of the recent financial market crisis. For that purpose, in the first step we use a three-variable single-equation framework with real GDP, an interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015298932
The book summarises the results of a research agenda pursued by Eurosystem staff to enhance the set of tools used to conduct the ECB's monetary analysis and describes how these results are used to support the preparation of monetary policy decisions. The book is in two main parts. The first part...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015310807
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We consider a simple extension of the basic new-Keynesian setup in which we relax the assumption of frictionless financial markets. In our economy, asymmetric information and default risk lead banks to optimally charge a lending rate above the risk-free rate. Our contribution is threefold....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005002754
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015312020
We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective … turns out to be particularly large for moderate inflation expectations. We find significant heterogeneity in the inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015320536