assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead … results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is an empirical issue. Empirical results in the literature often … go unexplained. This leaves forecasters in the dark when confronted with the option of forecast aggregation. We take our …

predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. JEL Classification: C32, E … macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate …

the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area …

This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than … accurate estimates of inflation for the current and followings months. In particular, this paper uses the Weekly Oil Bulletin …-based measure of ”news” from each data release and subsequently to assess its impact on the forecast revision. The paper provides an …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have …

In this paper we present supporting evidence of the existence of heterogeneity in inflation dynamics across euro area … significant inertial (backward looking) behavior in inflation in four of them, while inflation in Germany has a dominat forward … looking component. We then present an optimizing agent model for the area emphasizing the hetergeneity in inflation …

This paper reviews recent approaches to modeling the labour market and assesses their implications for inflation … volatile inflation. Models with wage stickiness and right-to-manage bargaining or with firm-specific labour emerge as the most …

inflation series of the euro area CPI translates into the slow adjustment of euro area aggregate inflation. We first estimate a … dynamic factor model for 404 inflation sub-indices of the euro area CPI. This allows to decompose the dynamics of inflation … the overall variance of the 404 disaggregate inflation series, is the main driver of aggregate dynamics. In addition, the …