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Growth accounting for the euro area: a structural approach
Proietti, Tommaso; Musso, Alberto - European Central Bank - 2007
relationships linking inflation and nominal wage dynamics to the output gap and cyclical unemployment, respectively. Assuming a Cobb …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222371
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Potential output from a euro area perspective
Anderton, Robert; Aranki, Ted; Dieppe, Alistair; … - European Central Bank - 2014
This paper reviews potential output from a euro area perspective by summarising the developments according to international institutions and assessing the impact of the crisis. The paper also considers the methodological basis for potential output estimates, and the high degree of uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011115259
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Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance
Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - European Central Bank - 2010
estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008541291
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The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation
Garnier, Julien; Wilhelmsen, Bjørn-Roger - European Central Bank - 2005
potential and stationary inflation. This paper applies the method recently suggested by Laubach and Williams to jointly estimate … area was on average stimulative during the 1960s and the 1970s, while it contributed to dampen the output gap and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005033428
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Instability and nonlinearity in the euro area Phillips curve
Musso, Alberto; Stracca, Livio; van Dijk, Dick - European Central Bank - 2007
regards the possibility of a time-varying mean of inflation. Moreover, we conduct a sensitivity analysis across different … of the Phillips curve occurring in the early to mid 1980s, but not in inflation persistence once the mean shift is … allowed for. As a result of the structural change, the Phillips curve became flatter around a lower mean of inflation. Second …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530964
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An application of index numbers theory to interest rates
Huerga, Javier; Steklacova, Lucia - European Central Bank - 2008
This paper uses index number theory to disentangle changes in aggregate retail interest rates due to changes in individual component rates (“interest rate effect”) from those caused by changes in the weights of each component (“weight effect”), on the basis of the “difference” index...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530730
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Mortgage interest rate dispersion in the euro area
Kok, Christoffer; Lichtenberger, Jung-Duk - European Central Bank - 2007
Despite the remarkable economic and financial convergence over the last ten years in the euro area, mortgage interest rates still differ across countries. This note presents some stylised facts on the heterogeneity of mortgage interest rates across euro area countries on the basis of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222338
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Bond market inflation expectations and longer-term trends in broad monetary growth and inflation in industrial countries, 1880-2001
Dewald, William G. - European Central Bank - 2003
JEL Classification: E3, E40, E50, N10
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530990
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An international analysis of earnings, stock prices and bond yields
Durré, Alain; Giot, Pierre - European Central Bank - 2005
This paper assesses the possible contemporaneous relationship between stock index prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries and over a time period that spans several decades. In a cointegration framework, our analysis looks at three hypotheses. First,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816225
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Potential output in DSGE models
Vetlov, Igor; Hlédik, Tibor; Jonsson, Magnus; Kucsera, … - European Central Bank - 2011
In view of the increasing use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in the macroeconomic projections and the policy process, this paper examines, both conceptually and empirically, alternative notions of potential output within DSGE models. Furthermore, it provides historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009132509