The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead … results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is an empirical issue. Empirical results in the literature often … go unexplained. This leaves forecasters in the dark when confronted with the option of forecast aggregation. We take our …

predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. JEL Classification: C32, E … macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate …

attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use … the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area …

This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than … accurate estimates of inflation for the current and followings months. In particular, this paper uses the Weekly Oil Bulletin … Price Statistics for the euro area, the Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices for the US and daily World Market Prices of …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have …

This paper uses survey data to assess consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area. The probability approach is … used to derive quantitative estimates of inflation expectations from the European Commission's Consumer Survey. The paper … subsequently analyses the empirical properties of the estimated inflation expectations by considering the extent to which they …

, the more timehas elapsed since the latest release of an inflation report, market volatility shouldincrease, the price …-term interest rates to the Bank of England’s inflation report andto macroeconomic announcements. Due to the quarterly frequency at …, financial market participants need to rely more on privateinformation. The paper develops a stylized model which predicts that …

a special focus on persistence of real wages,wage and price inflation. The analysis is conducted within a structural …, as well as the cointegrating properties of theestimated system. Overall, in the long run, wage and price inflation emerge …