compare these optimal rules against plausible alternatives. Model uncertainty is shown to be a substantial problem; the …

episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second …, we assess the behaviour of macroeconomic and financial variables during these episodes of very high uncertainty. This … markets. We find that very high uncertainty episodes are associated with a weaker growth performance and sharp declines in …

. An important feature of the model is that higher economic or political uncertainty tightens solvency constraints and …

This paper studies optimal discretionary policy with parameter uncertainty about inflation inertia. Optimal policy … in the presence of uncertainty about inflation inertia, depending on the form of the central bank’s objective function …

optimally estimated. Third, the implications of potential output uncertainty for the optimal delegation to an independent …

(“uncertainty”), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being …

stock' model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model … uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the … saving rate's long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business …

This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a … structural threshold VAR model, we endogenously identify different regimes of uncertainty in which we estimate the effects of oil … demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial …

We estimate the effect of demand and price uncertainty on firms’ investment decisions from a panel of manufacturing … firms. Uncertainty measures are derived from firms’ subjective qualitative expectations. They are close to their theoretical … counterparts, the variances of future demand and price shocks. We find that demand uncertainty depresses planned and realized …