Showing 1 - 10 of 73
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM’s forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008516222
distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686802
’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E32, E …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222279
We estimate the approximate nonlinear solution of a small DSGE model on euro area data, using the conditional particle filter to compute the model likelihood. Our results are consistent with previous findings, based on simulated data, suggesting that this approach delivers sharper inference...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344869
We estimate a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model for the US and the euro area including relevant housing market features and examine the monetary policy implications of housing-related disturbances. In particular, we derive the optimal monetary policy cooperation consistent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344916
We propose a benchmark prior for the estimation of vector autoregressions: a prior about initial growth rates of the modeled series. We first show that the Bayesian vs frequentist small sample bias controversy is driven by different default initial conditions. These initial conditions are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008694053
This paper presents first the estimation of a two-country DSGE model for the euro area and the rest-of-the-world including relevant oil-price channels. We then investigate the optimal resolution of the policy tradeoffs emanating from oil-price disturbances. Our simulations show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004969156
The objective of this paper is to examine the main features of optimal monetary policy within a micro-founded macroeconometric framework. First, using Bayesian techniques, we estimate a medium scale closed economy DSGE for the euro area. Then, we study the properties of the Ramsey allocation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004969185
Advances in the development of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models towards medium-scale structural frameworks with satisfying data coherence have considerably enhanced the range of analytical tools well-suited for monetary policy evaluation. The present paper intends to make a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004969186
In this paper I estimate a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model for the Euro Area, which closely follows the structure of the model developed by Smets and Wouters (2003, 2005, 2007), with the addition of the so-called financial accelerator mechanism developed in Bernanke,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008476132