We explore the macroeconomic impact of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 via a Bayesian time-varying parameter structural VAR. We identify a ‘pure’ spread shock which, leaving the short-term rate unchanged by construction,...

This paper presents a complete set of results describing the effects of monetary policy in 10 countries of the euro area for the pre-EMU period. For each country, we impose one of three identification schemes depending on its monetary integration with Germany, the nominal anchor of the ERM. The...

This paper investigates whether monetary policy impulses have asymmetric effects on output growth in seven countries of the euro area (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands). First, it is shown that these seven countries share the same business cycle. Next, strong...

I find that the Eurosystem can stimulate the economy beyond the policy rate by increasing the size of its balance sheet or the monetary base. The transmission mechanism turns out to be different compared to traditional interest rate innovations: (i) whilst the effects on economic activity and...

This paper explores time variation in the dynamic effects of technology shocks on U.S. output, prices, interest rates as well as real and nominal wages. The results indicate considerable time variation in U.S. wage dynamics that can be linked to the monetary policy regime. Before and after the...

This paper provides evidence for the impact of technology, labor supply, monetary policy and aggregate spending shocks on hours worked in the Euro area. The evidence is based on a vector autoregression identi?ed using sign restrictions that are consistent with both sticky price and real business...

This paper applies the identified VAR methodology to synthetic euro area data from 1980 till 1998 to study the macro-economic effects of an unexpected change in monetary policy in the euro area. The focus is on the area-wide monetary transmission. It is shown that the overall macro-economic...

We first estimate the effects of an euro area-wide monetary policy change on output growth in eleven industries of seven euro area countries over the period 1980-1998. On average the negative effect of an interest rate tightening on output is significantly greater in recessions than in booms....