This paper presents an empirical analysis of the medium-term determinants of the euro effective exchange rate. The empirical analysis builds on synthetic quarterly data from 1975 to 1998, and derives a Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and a Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER)....

We apply the Campbell-Shiller return decomposition to exchange rate returns and fundamentals in a stationary panel vector autoregression framework. The return decomposition is then used to analyse how different investor segments react to news as captured by the different return components. The...

In this paper we examine linkages across non-energy commodity price developments by means of a factor-augmented VAR model (FAVAR). From a set of non-energy commodity price series, we extract two factors, which we identify as common trends in metals and a food prices. These factors are included...

This paper provides a discussion of methodological issues relating to the estimation of the long-run relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals for Central and Eastern European acceding countries, focusing on the so-called behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. Given...

This paper examines the long-run determinants of the euro-yen exchange rate. Using cointegration analysis, we find a consistent and significant relationship between the real exchange rate and relative productivity, the net foreign asset position, relative government spending and terms of trade...

This paper analyses the impact of productivity developments in the United States and the euro area on the euro-dollar exchange rate. The paper presents a new measure of relative average labour productivity (ALP), which does not suffer from the biases implicit in readily available relative ALP...

We estimate the elasticity of substitution of a country’s imports, and that of its exports on the world market, for EU countries using sector level trade data. We present a new empirical strategy based on the identification scheme by Feenstra (1994), which enables the estimation of...

The elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported goods is a central parameter in macroeconomic models, but after decades of empirical studies there is no consensus on its magnitude. Earlier literature using time series arrives at low values, while more recent studies using...

This paper studies the determinants of the euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis, allowing a role for macroeconomic fundamentals, policy actions and the public debate by policy makers. It finds that the euro exchange rate mainly danced to its own tune, with a particularly...