The onset of the financial crisis in 2008 has highlighted the problems of diverging external imbalances within Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the role of persistent losses in competitiveness. This paper starts by investigating some of the competitiveness factors which contributed to...

Following the discontinuation of the official statistics on industrial new orders by Eurostat in mid-2012, this paper introduces the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders, which aims to fill the new statistical gaps for euro area total new orders as well as for various breakdowns....

This paper aims to shed light on the role of credit supply shocks in euro area countries during the recent pre-crisis, bust, and post-crisis periods. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility à la Primiceri (2005) is estimated for each country, and the...

We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we use a parsimonious CDS pricing model to estimate the probability of default (PD) and the loss given default (LGD) as perceived by financial markets. We find that separate...

This study examines the marginal effects of traditional determinants of exports and imports with a focus on the role of price competitiveness in restoring external balances. It is a first attempt to compare marginal effects of various harmonised competitiveness indicators (HCIs) on both exports...

Results from the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey reveal substantial variation in household net wealth across euro area countries that await explanation. This paper focuses on three main factors for the wealth accumulation process, i) homeownership, ii) housing value...

How much did fiscal policy contribute to euro area real GDP growth during the Great Recession? We estimate that discretionary fiscal measures have increased annualized quarterly real GDP growth during the crisis by up to 1.6 percentage points. We obtain our result by using an extended version of...

In this paper, we utilise the multi-country version of the NAWM to analyse the impact of globalisation on euro area macroeconomic aggregates. We provide alternative model-based definitions of globalisation associated with an increase in potential output in emerging Asia and its impact on total...

The paper proposes a modelling approach for euro area goods and services trade volumes and prices on the basis of a break-down of trade data into their intra- and extra-area components. Using the evidence from the newly estimated trade equations, the paper gives new insights into two important...

Short-term fiscal indicators based on public accounts data are often used by European policy makers. They represent one of the main sources of publicly available intra-annual fiscal information. Nevertheless, these indicators have received limited attention from the academic literature analysing...