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Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?
Hofmann, Boris - European Central Bank - 2008
indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222333
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The information content of M3 for future inflation
Trecroci, Carmine; Vega, Juan Luis - European Central Bank - 2000
The information content of broad money M3 for future GDP inflation in the euro area is investigated from a number of … real M3 holdings, real GDP, inflation and short- and long-term interest rates. Secondly, this empirical framework is … predictive power for future inflation. And thirdly, the P-star type of model developed is compared with an existing rival model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816264
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Have euro area and EU economic governance worked? Just the facts
Ioannou, Demosthenes; Stracca, Livio - European Central Bank - 2011
We test whether two key elements of the EU and euro area economic governance framework, the Stability and Growth Pact and the Lisbon Strategy, have had any impact on macroeconomic outcomes. We test this proposition using a difference-in-difference approach on a panel of over 30 countries, some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024967
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The predictive content of sectoral stock prices: a US-euro area comparison
Andersson, Magnus; D’Agostino, Antonello; de Bondt, Gabe - European Central Bank - 2011
This paper examines the out‐of‐sample forecast performance of sectoral stock market indicators for real GDP, private consumption and investment growth up to 4 quarters ahead in the US and the euro area. Our findings are that the predictive content of sectoral stock market indicators: i) is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024968
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The role of oil prices in the euro area economy since the 1970s
Hahn, Elke; Mestre, Ricardo - European Central Bank - 2011
adverse contributions of both shocks to HICP inflation and GDP in the first half of the sample than in the second, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009149023
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How flexible are real wages in EU countries? A panel investigation
Heinz, Frigyes Ferdinand; Rusinova, Desislava - European Central Bank - 2011
during upswings. Moreover, there exists an inflation threshold, below which real wage flexibility seems to decrease. Finally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009210931
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Euro area cross-border financial flows and the global financial crisis
Forster, Katrin; Vasardani, Melina A.; Ca' Zorzi, Michele - European Central Bank - 2011
This paper analyses the impact of the global financial crisis on euro area cross-border financial flows by comparing recent developments with the main pre-crisis trends. Two prominent features of the period of turmoil were (i) the sizeable deleveraging of external financial exposures by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009216679
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Some lessons from the financial crisis for the economic analysis
Kenny, Geoff; Morgan, Julian - European Central Bank - 2011
The economics profession in general, and economic forecasters in particular, have faced some understandable criticism for their failure to predict the timing and severity of the recent economic crisis. In this paper, we offer some assessment of the performance of the Economic Analysis conducted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009327807
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Predicting recessions and recoveries in real time: The euro area-wide leading indicator (ALI)
de Bondt, Gabe; Hahn, Elke - European Central Bank - 2010
This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one‐sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008646312
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The global downturn and its impact on euro area exports and competitiveness
di Mauro, Filippo; Forster, Katrin; Lima, Ana - European Central Bank - 2010
World trade contracted sharply in late 2008 and early 2009 following the deepening of the financial crisis in September 2008. This paper discusses the main mechanisms behind the global downturn in trade and its impact on euro area exports and competitiveness. It finds that the euro area was hit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008679923