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Country and sector-specific spillover effects in the euro area, the United States and Japan
Kaltenhaeuser, Bernd - European Central Bank - 2003
JEL Classification: F36, G15
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222331
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The information content of M3 for future inflation
Trecroci, Carmine; Vega, Juan Luis - European Central Bank - 2000
The information content of broad money M3 for future GDP inflation in the euro area is investigated from a number of … real M3 holdings, real GDP, inflation and short- and long-term interest rates. Secondly, this empirical framework is … predictive power for future inflation. And thirdly, the P-star type of model developed is compared with an existing rival model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816264
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Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?
Hofmann, Boris - European Central Bank - 2008
indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222333
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Persistence, the transmission mechanism and robust monetary policy
Angeloni, Ignazio; Coenen, Günter; Smets, Frank - European Central Bank - 2003
In this paper we first explore the impact of nominal and real persistence on the transmission process of various shocks in an estimated DSGE model of euro area. We then analyse its impact on optimal monetary policy and investigate the performance of various monetary policies when the policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344927
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Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area
Gerdesmeier, Dieter; Roffia, Barbara - European Central Bank - 2003
use of different measures of the output gap and the inflation term, can better track the interest rate setting in the euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816162
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The natural real rate of interest in the euro area
Giammarioli, Nicola; Valla, Natacha - European Central Bank - 2003
In this paper, we discuss the consequences of taking inot account the variations of the natural real interest rate (rt*) in simple monetary policy rules. We also provide one possible model-based analysis of the level of rt* that has prevailed in the euro area since the early 1970s, and present...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816329
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Risks to price stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: a real-time assessment
Coenen, Günter; Warne, Anders - European Central Bank - 2013
is derived from policy-makers’ preferences about inflation outcomes, we first show that downside risks to price stability … future inflation can provide insurance against the materialisation of such upside risks. JEL Classification: E31, E37, E52, E …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010693493
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The impact of the euro on money and bond markets
Santillán, Javier; Bayle, Marc; Thygesen, Christian - European Central Bank - 2000
The paper provides an analysis of the euro area money and bond markets and their infrastructure since the introduction of the euro. Significant development in terms of integration took place in both markets in general to a various degree for the different segments. However, there remain room for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004969144
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Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?
Mojon, Benoît; Kashyap, Anil K.; Angeloni, Ignazio; … - European Central Bank - 2002
Drawing on recent Eurosystem research that uses a range of econometric techniques and a number of new data sets, we propose a comprehensive description of how monetary policy affects the euro area economy. We focus mainly on three questions: (1) what are the stylised facts concerning the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005070389
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Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE model: an application to the euro area
Smets, Frank; Wouters, Raf - European Central Bank - 2004
inflation and output play an important role. This paper illustrates how modern sticky-price dynamic stochastic general … distribution of the forecast, as well as various inflation risk measures that have been proposed in the literature. Finally, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162894