within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have …

for addressing the question from an empirical angle, searching for the indicator that best explains and helps forecast …

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a … novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 … financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, Fed communication may exert an influence on forecast accuracy. JEL …

countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and …

(“uncertainty”), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being …

stock' model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model … uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the … saving rate's long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business …

This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a … structural threshold VAR model, we endogenously identify different regimes of uncertainty in which we estimate the effects of oil … demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial …

This paper studies optimal discretionary policy with parameter uncertainty about inflation inertia. Optimal policy … in the presence of uncertainty about inflation inertia, depending on the form of the central bank’s objective function …

for simple policy rules such as Taylor or inflation-forecast rule are examined. In first-difference form, both rules … continue to perform relatively well with imperfect information as long as the output gap and the inflation forecast are … optimally estimated. Third, the implications of potential output uncertainty for the optimal delegation to an independent …