future exchange rates. The purpose of this paper is to systematically assess the quality of option based volatility, interval … option prices. We find that the OTC implied volatilities explain a much larger share of the variation in realized volatility …

Forecasting the world economy is a di¢ cult task given the complex interre-lationships within and across countries …, …rst, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms offorecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … forecasting di-rectly aggregate variables (direct approaches) outperform methods based onthe aggregation of country …

forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the role of dataset …

content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and monitoring purposes. The models are estimated with annual and …

forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor …. For most of the components, we report that factor models yield lower forecasting errors than a simple AR process or an … improvements in terms of forecasting accuracy are found for more volatile periods, such as the recent financial crisis. However …

autoregressive model, a large Bayesian VAR and a time-varying model with stochastic volatility. We find that once the appropriate …

periods of low and high economic volatility (more specifically, we consider 2002-2007, which falls into the ‘Great Moderation …

volatility in the US. JEL Classification: C53, D8, E32 …