unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast …. Conversely, for the inflation rate there is stronger evidence that more refined combinations can lead to improvement over this …

theoretical predictions and simulations are corroborated when forecasting aggregate US inflation pre- and post 1984 using …To forecast an aggregate, we propose adding disaggregate variables, instead of combining forecasts of those … disaggregates or forecasting by a univariate aggregate model. New analytical results show the effects of changing coefficients, mis …

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead … results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is an empirical issue. Empirical results in the literature often … go unexplained. This leaves forecasters in the dark when confronted with the option of forecast aggregation. We take our …

predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. JEL Classification: C32, E … macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate …

the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area …

This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than … accurate estimates of inflation for the current and followings months. In particular, this paper uses the Weekly Oil Bulletin …-based measure of ”news” from each data release and subsequently to assess its impact on the forecast revision. The paper provides an …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have …

This paper demonstrates how the real-time forecasting accuracy of different Brent oil price forecast models changes … forecasting statistics might hide important information on a model`s forecasting properties. To address this instability, we … propose a forecast combination approach to predict quarterly real Brent oil prices. A four-model combination (consisting of …

This paper explores the role of model and vintage combination in forecasting, with a novel approach that exploits the … information contained in the revision history of a given variable. We analyse the forecast performance of eleven widely used … models to predict inflation and GDP growth, in the three dimensions of accuracy, uncertainty and stability by using the real …

that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes …