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What Triggers Prolonged Inflation Regimes? A Historical Analysis
Vansteenkiste, Isabel - European Central Bank - 2009
price inflation, the degree of trade openness, the level of past inflation, the ratio of external debt to GDP and the …This paper empirically assesses which factors trigger prolonged periods of inflation for a sample of 91 countries over … inflation starts. The empirical results suggest that for all cases considered a more fixed exchange rate regime and lower real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008549307
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National prices and wage setting in a currency union
Sánchez, Marcelo - European Central Bank - 2009
Existing work on wage bargaining (as exemplified by Cukierman and Lippi, 2001) typicallypredicts more aggressive wage setting under monetary union. This insight has not beenconfirmed by the EMU experience, which has been characterised by wage moderation,thereby eliciting criticism from Posen and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866574
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National prices and wage setting in a currency union
Sánchez, Marcelo - European Central Bank - 2009
country size, the preference for price stability, aggregate demand slopes, labour substitutability across unions, the number …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005002814
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The real effects of money growth in dynamic general equilibrium
Graham, Liam; Snower, Dennis J. - European Central Bank - 2004
We analyse the effects of money growth within a standard New Keynesian framework and show that the interaction between staggered nominal contracts and money growth leads to a long-run trade-off between output and money growth. We explore the microeconomic mechanisms that lead to this trade-off,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162920
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Markups in the euro area and the US over the period 1981-2004: a comparison of 50 sectors
Christopoulou, Rebekka; Vermeulen, Philip - European Central Bank - 2008
This paper provides estimates of price-marginal cost ratios or markups for 50 sectors in 8 euro area countries and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344902
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Market Indicators, Bank Fragility, and Indirect Market Discipline
Gropp, Reint; Vesala, Jukka; Vulpes, Giuseppe - European Central Bank; UniCredit Group <Milano> - 2004
[...]This paper aims to ascertain the quality (that is, thepredictive power and prediction errors) of two marketindicators: the distance to default and the subordinated debtspread. Previous work has established that banks’ marketprices reflect contemporaneous information about bank riskin the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005869753
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Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?
Fratzscher, Marcel; Mehl, Arnaud - European Central Bank - 2008
This paper analyses the impact of the shift away from a US dollar focus of systemically important emerging market economies (EMEs) on configurations between the US dollar, the euro and the yen. Given the difficulty that fixed or managed US dollar exchange rate regimes remain pervasive and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344843
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The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies
Mehl, Arnaud - European Central Bank - 2006
inflation and growth. It also examines international financial linkages and how the US and the euro area yield curves help to … for inflation and growth persistence, at both short and long forecast horizons, and that it often improves out … US and the euro area yield curves also have in- and out-of-sample information content for future inflation and growth in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530689
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Is time ripe for a currency union in emerging East Asia? The role of monetary stabilisation
Sánchez, Marcelo - European Central Bank - 2005
This paper assesses the prospects for monetary integration between Emerging East Asian (EEA) economies. Our empirical analysis is based on a simple analytical framework for currency unions of small open economies, with a focus on the conduct of monetary policy in the presence of different types...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530692
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Saving behaviour and global imbalances: the role of emerging market economies
Ferrucci, Gianluigi; Miralles, Cesar - European Central Bank - 2007
In recent years there has been considerable variation in savings patterns across countries and regions, with implications for the configuration of global current account balances, asset valuations and real interest rates. This paper looks at the empirical drivers behind these trends. It uses a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530803