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Bubble thy neighbor: portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls

Forbes, Kristin; Fratzscher, Marcel; Kostka, Thomas; … - European Central Bank - 2012

We use changes in Brazil’s tax on capital inflows from 2006 to 2011 to test for direct portfolio effects and …. We find that an increase in Brazil’s tax on foreign investment in bonds causes investors to significantly decrease their … portfolio allocations to Brazil in both bonds and equities. Investors simultaneously increase allocations to other countries …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686793

Collateral imbalances in intra-european trade? Accounting for the difference between gross and value added trade balances

Nagengast, Arne J.; Stehrer, Robert - European Central Bank - 2014

One of the main stylised facts that has emerged from the recent literature on global value chains is that bilateral trade imbalances in gross terms can differ substantially from those measured in value added terms. However, the factors underlying the extent and sign of the differences between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011067272

Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?

Fratzscher, Marcel; Mehl, Arnaud - European Central Bank - 2008

This paper analyses the impact of the shift away from a US dollar focus of systemically important emerging market economies (EMEs) on configurations between the US dollar, the euro and the yen. Given the difficulty that fixed or managed US dollar exchange rate regimes remain pervasive and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344843

The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies

Mehl, Arnaud - European Central Bank - 2006

This paper investigates the extent to which the slope of the yield curve in emerging economies predicts domestic inflation and growth. It also examines international financial linkages and how the US and the euro area yield curves help to predict. It finds that the domestic yield curve in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530689

Is time ripe for a currency union in emerging East Asia? The role of monetary stabilisation

Sánchez, Marcelo - European Central Bank - 2005

This paper assesses the prospects for monetary integration between Emerging East Asian (EEA) economies. Our empirical analysis is based on a simple analytical framework for currency unions of small open economies, with a focus on the conduct of monetary policy in the presence of different types...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530692

Saving behaviour and global imbalances: the role of emerging market economies

Ferrucci, Gianluigi; Miralles, Cesar - European Central Bank - 2007

In recent years there has been considerable variation in savings patterns across countries and regions, with implications for the configuration of global current account balances, asset valuations and real interest rates. This paper looks at the empirical drivers behind these trends. It uses a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530803

Was unofficial dollarisation/euroisation an amplifier of the 'Great Recession' of 2007-09 in emerging economies

Chiţu, Livia - European Central Bank - 2012

This paper investigates whether, and if so why, the recent ‘Great Recession’ was more severe in unofficially dollarised/euroised economies than in other economies. To that end, the paper builds on a novel dataset on unofficial dollarisation/euroisation to test whether the latter was a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686813

The determinants of ‘domestic’ original sin in emerging market economies

Mehl, Arnaud; Reynaud, Julien - European Central Bank - 2005

This paper explains why domestic debt composition in emerging economies is risky. It carries out an analysis of the determinants of ‘domestic’ original sin, which refers to the inability of emerging economies to borrow domestically in local currency, at long maturities and fixed interest...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222281

Uncovered interest parity at distant horizons: evidence on emerging economies & nonlinearities

Mehl, Arnaud; Cappiello, Lorenzo - European Central Bank - 2007

This paper tests for uncovered interest parity (UIP) at distant horizons for the US and its main trading partners, including both mature and emerging market economies, also exploring the existence of nonlinearities. At long and medium horizons, it finds support in favour of the standard, linear,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816198

Imports and profitability in the euro area manufacturing sector: the role of emerging market economies

Peltonen, Tuomas A.; Skala, Martin; Santos Rivera, Alvaro; … - European Central Bank - 2008

The paper analyses the impact of import penetration on firms’ profitability in 15 manufacturing industries in 10 euro area countries during 1995-2004, focusing on the role of emerging market economies. Our results indicate that import competition from emerging market economies has had an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344831