Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been … remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s … observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the …

based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including … the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good …