We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

inflation behaves as if prices are nearly fully sticky (flexible). Using (conventional) measures of inflation that understate …

inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly …

unemployment-inflation tradeoff since 1995 …

, according to the Johansen procedure, cointegration fails to hold the farther out the forecasts extend. At the one year ahead …