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Fiscal indulgence in Central Europe: loss of the external anchor?

Berger, Helge; Kopits, George; Székely, István P. - Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Freie Universität … - 2006

In recent years, fiscal performance in Central Europe has steadily deteriorated, in contrast to the improvement in the Baltics. This paper explores the determinants of such differences among countries on the path to EU accession. Regression estimates suggest that economic and institutional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533646

What determines fiscal policy? Evidence from German states

Berger, Helge; Holler, Anika - Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Freie Universität … - 2007

This paper explores the factors behind the time path of real spending and revenue in the West German states from 1975 to 2004. The empirical approach stresses robustness and takes into account a large set of economic and political variables. Our results suggest that common economic factors and,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533648

One country, one vote? Labor market structure and voting rights in the ECB

Berger, Helge; Hefeker, Carsten - Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Freie Universität … - 2004

The pending enlargement of the European Monetary Union (EMU) has brought to the fore the discussion of the voting right distribution in the European Central Bank (ECB) council. We show that, in a model where labor unions internalize the inflationary consequences of wage setting, deviating from a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009323162

Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography

Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Freie Universität … - 2006

Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multi-country, multi-cultural, and multi-lingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the ECB? Using a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533521

Does global liquidity matter for monetary policy in the Euro area?

Berger, Helge; Harjes, Thomas - Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Freie Universität … - 2008

developments from a euro area perspective. We find that both excess liquidity in Japan and, in particular, the U.S. tend to lead …Global excess liquidity roaming the world’s financial markets (or its sudden absence) is sometimes believed to limit … constitutes global excess liquidity and how exactly it shapes the policy environment. Our approach adjusts liquidity for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533525

Geography or skills: what explains Fed Wachters' forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?

Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Freie Universität … - 2008

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533527

Central Bank boards around the world: Why does membership size differ?

Berger, Helge; Nitsch, Volker; Lybek, Tonny - Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Freie Universität … - 2008

This paper analyzes empirically differences in the size of central bank boards (or monetary policy committees) across countries. We discuss the possible determinants of a board's size. The empirical relevance of these factors is examined using a new dataset that covers the de jure membership...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533538

Does money matter in the ECB strategy? New evidence based on ECB communication

Berger, Helge; de Haan, Jakob; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Freie Universität … - 2006

We examine the role of money in the policies of the ECB, using introductory statements of the ECB President at the monthly press conferences during 1999-2004. Over time, the relative amount of words devoted to the monetary analysis has decreased. Our analysis of indicators of the monetary policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533614

Does money matter for U.S. inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs

Berger, Helge; Österholm, Pär - Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Freie Universität … - 2008

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533634

Does money growth granger-cause inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from output-of-sample forecasts using Bayesian VARs

Berger, Helge; Österholm, Pär - Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Freie Universität … - 2008

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533654