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Volatility is an indispensible component of sensible portfolio risk management. The volatility of an asset of composite … index can be traded by using volatility derivatives, such as volatility and variance swaps, options and futures. The most … popular volatility index is VIX, which is a key measure of market expectations of volatility, and hence is a key barometer of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009364036
This paper analyzes the relationship between the volatility of corporate bond returns and standard financial and … volatility that distinguishes the short-term dynamics from the long-run component of volatility. Both the in-sample and out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010812479
mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models … price while the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010778726
The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics: improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts, whether forecast updates are progressive, on a constrained mixture vector autoregressive model, whether all estimators are born equal:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011162548
After reviewing the reasons to use solution methods in macroeconomics,this survey paper discusses diferent aspects relative to a rigorous use of the numerical output of such methods. Special attention is paid to suggestions that have been made to incorporate parameter uncertainty. Finally, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005115631
Many macro-economic forecasts and forecast updates, such as those from the IMF and OECD, typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition (namely, expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster), which is non-replicable. . Learning from previous mistakes can affect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008864018
microstructure noise and to obtain consistent estimates of the integrated volatility (IV) as a measure of ex-post daily volatility …. Even bias-corrected and consistent realized volatility (RV) estimates of IV can contain residual microstructure noise and … other measurement errors. Such noise is called “realized volatility error”. As such errors are ignored, we need to take …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008915753
Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, widely published, intensively discussed and comprehensively used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009002164
Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009141352
Taiwan, and their associated volatility. Inclusion of the exchange rate and its volatility captures approximate daily and … weekly price and price volatility effects on world, US and Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan. The Heterogeneous … of conditional volatility are sensitive to the long memory in the conditional mean, to examine asymmetry and leverage in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009141353