component, which is replicable, as well as intuition (namely, expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster), which is non …-replicable. . Learning from previous mistakes can affect both the replicable component of a model as well as intuition. If learning, and …-economic forecast updates are progressive, where the interaction between model and intuition is explicitly taken into account. The data …

intuition. The interpretation of the sign of the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions depends on the … process governing intuition, and the correlation between intuition and news. …

numerical forecasts can be decomposed into both an econometric model and random expert intuition. We show that the … intuition, and the current and lagged correlations between intuition and news (or shocks to the numerical forecasts). It follows …