This paper examines the effectiveness of using futures contracts as hedging instruments of: (1) alternative models of volatility for estimating conditional variances and covariances; (2) alternative currencies; and (3) alternative maturities of futures contracts. For this purpose, daily data of...

We analyze the effect of parameter estimation error on the size of unconditional population level tests of predictive ability when they are implemented under a class of loss functions we refer to as ‘discrete functions’. The analysis is restricted to linear models in stationary variables. We...

The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects. We modify the jump-robust two time scale covariance estimator of Boudt and Zhang (2013) such that the estimated matrix is positive definite. Using this approach we can disentangle the...

This paper examines the effect on the effectiveness of using futures contracts as hedging instruments of: 1) the model of volatility used to estimate conditional variances and covariances, 2) the analyzed currency, and 3) the maturity of the futures contract being used. For this purpose, daily...

We propose a new approach to evaluating the usefulness of a set of forecasts, based on the use of a discrete loss function de…ned on the space of data and forecasts. Existing procedures for such an evaluation either do not allow for formal testing, or use tests statistics based just on the...

When dealing with market risk under the Basel II Accord, variation pays in the form of lower capital requirements and higher profits. Typically, GARCH type models are chosen to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a single risk model. In this paper we illustrate two useful variations to the...

In this paper we advance the idea that optimal risk management under the Basel II Accord will typically require the use of a combination of different models of risk. This idea is illustrated by analyzing the best empirical models of risk for five stock indexes before, during,and after the...

Econometric models applied to observed data, specified and estimated using traditional Box-Jenkins techniques, have been widely used to forecast Quarterly National Account (QNA) aggregates. We assess the extent to which an alternative forecasting procedure, based on component models, improves...

Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO’s World Heritage List. For the potential negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment,...

The Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world’s environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the...