Showing 1 - 9 of 9
A key application of long memory time series models concerns inflation. Long memory implies that shocks have a long-lasting effect. It may however be that empirical evidence for long memory is caused by neglecting one or more level shifts. Since such level shifts are not unlikely for inflation,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731662
We examine if US inflation rates series can be characterized by a long-memory model, by a model with occasional level shifts or by a new model, which jointly captures the two features. Through simulations we show that this new model can be usefully applied in practice. For 23 inflation rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837931
observations. Conversely, neglected outliers in a linear time series of moderate length may incorrectly suggest STAR type … have a better level and power behavior than standard nonrobust tests in situations with outliers. We formally derive local … time series sometimes seems due to only a small number of outliers. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011149259
In this paper the issue of detecting and handling outliers in the GARCH(1,1) model is addressed. Simulation evidence … shows that neglecting even a single outlier has a dramatic on parameter estimates. To detect and correct for outliers, we … shows that correcting for a few outliers yields substantial improvements in out-of-sample forecasts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731774
, periods with outliers) which differ in length and size. In this paper we put forward a new model which can describe and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731898
LM test that is resistant to additive outliers. The data span two samples of 5 years ranging from 1986 to 1995. Our main … empirical method, we show that this general finding indeed appears to be due to outliers. We discuss some of the implications of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837745
In this paper we investigate empirical specification of smooth transition error correction models (STECMs). These models can be used to describe linear long-run relationships between nonstationary variables where adjustment towards equilibrium is nonlinear and can depend on exogenous variables....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837889
heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) in the presence of additive outliers (AO's). We show analytically that both the … due to only a small number of outliers and, conversely, that genuine GARCH effects can be masked by outliers. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837947
Outliers and nonlinearity may easily be mistaken. This paper uses Monte Carlo methods to examine and compare the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837988