This article proposes a modified method for the construction of diffusion indexes in macroeconomic forecasting using principal component regres- sion. The method aims to maximize the amount of variance of the origi- nal predictor variables retained by the diffusion indexes, by matching the data...

Macroeconomic forecasting is not an easy task, in particular if future growth rates are forecasted in real time. This paper compares various methods to predict the growth rate of US Industrial Production (IP) and of the Composite Coincident Index (CCI) of the Conference Board, over the coming...

Forecasting with many predictors is of interest, for instance, in macroeconomics and finance. This paper compares two methods for dealing with many predictors, that is, principal component regression (PCR) and principal covariate regression (PCovR). The forecast performance of these methods is...

Various ways of extracting macroeconomic information from a data-rich environment are compared with the objective of forecasting yield curves using the Nelson-Siegel model. Five issues in factor extraction are addressed, namely, selection of a subset of the available information, incorporation...

__Abstract__ Oceanographic conditions like wind strength and wave height affect the risk of shipping incidents. Seasonal variations and trends in these effects are studied for weather-related incidents and pollution incidents, for six major ship types and for six regions across the globe. The...

In this paper we discuss two methods for the estimation of linear dynamic factor models. The first method is behavioural in nature and consists of the least squares approximation of the observed data by means of a linear system. The second method is based on the statistical concept of principal...

Immigration tends to have a mitigating effect on the socioeconomic gender gap among immigrants. To explain this finding, we propose a gender convergence hypothesis that states that migration to a modern ‘open’ society offers women the opportunity to improve their position relative to that of...

Efficiency of outbound warehouse operations depends on the management of demand forecasts and associated labor planning. A case study in consumer electronics shows that warehouse management systematically over-forecasts actual orders, by 3% on average and by 6-12% in busy periods (at the end of...

This paper concerns the modelling of stochastic processes by means of dynamic factor models. In such models the observed process is decomposed into a structured part called the latent process, and a remainder that is called noise. The observed variables are treated in a symmetric way, so that no...

Pre-election polls can suffer from survey effects. For example, surveyed individuals can become more aware of the upcoming election so that they become more inclined to vote. These effects may depend on factors like political orientation and prior intention to vote, and this may cause biases in...