In this paper we consider a nonlinear model based on neural networks as well as linear models to forecast the daily volatility of the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 indexes. As a proxy for daily volatility, we consider a consistent and unbiased estimator of the integrated volatility that is computed from...

This paper examines risk transmission and migration among six US measures of credit and market risk during the full period 2004-2011 period and the 2009-2011 recovery subperiod, with a focus on four sectors related to the highly volatile oil price. There are more long-run equilibrium risk...

A number of recent theoretical studies have explored trading in fragmented markets, e.g. Biais et al. (2000), a phenomenon increasingly witnessed in modern markets. The key assumption generating the results is that there is at least one liquidity demander exploiting access to all markets by...

Economists and financial analysts have begun to recognise the importance of the actions of other agents in the decision-making process. Herding is the deliberate mimicking of the decisions of other agents. Examples of mimicry range from the choice of restaurant, fashion and financial market...

__Abstract__ Two of the fastest growing frontiers in econometrics and quantitative finance are time series and financial econometrics. Significant theoretical contributions to financial econometrics have been made by experts in statistics, econometrics, mathematics, and time series analysis. The...

In this paper we put forward a generalization of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Model of Engle (2002). Our model allows for asset-specific correlation sensitivities, which is useful in particular if one aims to summarize a large number of asset returns. The resultant GDCC model is...

We propose a discussion index model (Stock and Watson, 2002) to fore- cast electricity demand for one hour to one week ahead. The model is particularly useful as it captures complicated seasonal patterns in the data. The forecast performance of the proposed method is illustrated with a simulated...

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate...

This paper estimates univariate and multivariate conditional volatility and conditional correlation models of spot, forward and futures returns from three major benchmarks of international crude oil markets, namely Brent, WTI and Dubai, to aid in risk diversification. Conditional correlations...

Tests of causality in variance in multiple time series have been proposed recently, based on residuals of estimated univariate models. Although such tests are applied frequently little is known about their power properties. In this paper we show that a convenient alternative to residual based...