In this paper we propose a Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots in quarterly observed time series. Seasonal unit root processes are useful to describe economic series with changing seasonal fluctuations. A natural alternative model for similar purposes contains deterministic seasonal mean...

Internationally operating firms naturally face the decision whether or not to hedge the currency risk implied by foreign investments. In a recent paper, Bos, Mahieu and van Dijk evaluate the returns from optimal and alternative currency hedging strategies, for a series of 7 models, using...

Experts can rely on statistical model forecasts when creating their own forecasts. Usually it is not known what experts actually do. In this paper we focus on three questions, which we try to answer given the availability of expert forecasts and model forecasts. First, is the expert forecast...

Empirical analysis of individual response behavior is sometimes limited due to the lack of explanatory variables at the individual level. In this paper we put forward a new approach to estimate the effects of covariates on individual response, where the covariates are unknown at the individual...

This paper presents a case study of applying a Bayesian approach to forecast demand and subsequently determine the appropriate parameter S of an (S-1,S) inventory system for controlling spare parts of electronic equipment. First, the problem and the current policy are described. Then, the basic...