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The Basel II Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837790
It is well known that the Basel II Accord requires banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) to communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models, whether individually or as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010732600
, volatility spillovers from the Chinese stock market to economic neighbours, a detailed comparison of Value-at-Risk estimates, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010732625
We test for a change in the volatility of 215 US macroeconomic time series over the period 1960-1996. We find that … about 90\\% of these series have experienced a break in volatility during this period. This result is robust to controlling … for instability in the mean and business cycle nonlinearities. Real variables have seen a reduction in volatility since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837765
this paper is to analyze these two indexes in order to capture ENSO volatility. The empirical results show that both the … ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility. Moreover, 1998 is a turning … point for the volatility of SOI, and the ENSO volatility has became stronger since 1998 which indicates that the ENSO …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837928
In this paper we examine the forecasting performance of five nonlinear GARCH(1,1) models. Four of these have recently been proposed in literature, while the fifth model is a new one. All five models allow for switching persistence of shocks, depending on the value and/or sign of recent returns....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837955
realized volatility models, not confusing thresholds, asymmetry and leverage, not underestimating the complexity of … multivariate volatility models, and thinking carefully about forecasting models and expertise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837984
correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns, pricing exotic options using the Wang transform …, the rise and fall of S&P500 variance futures, predicting volatility using Markov switching multifractal model: evidence …, forecasting volatility via stock return, range, trading volume and spillover effects: the case of Brazil, estimating and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731768
Volatility breaks are tested and documented for 19 important monthly macroeconomic time series across the G7 countries … structural break, volatility breaks are found to be widespread. This continues to hold when business cycle nonlinearities are … allowed in the variance. Multiple volatility breaks are also examined, and these are found to be especially prevalent for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731776
mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model …, and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model … reached a peak in 2008. We also find that that the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010732592