Relying on University of Michigan data on consumers.in.ation expectations, we establish some stylized facts on the process of in.ation expectation formation across different demographic groups. Percentile time series models are employed to test for rationality and to study learning dynamics...

This paper presents a new approach to portfolio optimisation that we call generalised mean-variance (GMV) analysis. One important case of this approach is based on the stocks m-tile (or quantile): if m = n, where n is the number of stocks, m-tile membership becomes rank. Our analysis is the rank...

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

This paper characterizes the asymptotic behaviour, as the number of assets gets arbitrarily large, of the portfolio weights for the class of tangency portfolios belonging to the Markowitz paradigm. It is as- sumed that the joint distribution of asset returns is characterized by a general factor...

This argues for a closer link between the modelling of the long-run relations in applied economics and the intertemporal equilibrium notion from economic theory.

Interconnections can be an effective way to increase competition in wholesale electricity markets in particular for smaller markets with few actors. This paper quantitatively examines the potentials for interconnections in the Irish Single Electricity Market (SEM). We use a time-varying Kalman...

This paper This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a long-run level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend- or first-difference stationary. The...

This paper investigates the presence of target-zone nonlinearities in the Pound Sterling/Deutsche Mark exchange rate for the period of the UK European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) membership, using data with frequency of every two days. Tests against general nonlinear specifications as well as...

This paper addresses the problem of forecast evaluation in the context of a simple but realistic decision problem, and proposes a procedure, for the evaluation for forecats based on their average realized value to the decision maker.