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We extend the experimental literature on Bayesian herding using evidence from a financial decision-making experiment. We identify significant propensities to herd increasing with the degree of herd-consensus. We test various herding models to capture the differential impacts of Bayesian-style...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113886
High crude oil prices and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels such as non-conventional oil. The paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of synthetic crude oil (SCO) produced from Canadian oil sands. Synthetic crude oil is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008503184
quadratic only affect dead-weight losses, unless there is multiplicative uncertainty; and (ii) asymmetries affect the optimal … rule under both additive and multiplicative uncertainty but result in interest rate paths observationally similar, and in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005489335
High crude oil prices, uncertainties about the consequences of climate change and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels, such as non-conventional oil and biofuels. This paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005647351
quantifying the impact of uncertainty on further assume that these common factors affect volatility and economic activity with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790552
planning under uncertainty and apply it to a stylised representation of the Great Britain (GB) network. In our model, a …, the costs of ignoring uncertainty, and the value of flexibility. Our results show that ignoring risk has quantifiable … economic consequences, and that considering uncertainty explicitly can yield decisions that have lower expected costs than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024895
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005631254
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005478565
times. We show that the rise in the aggregate savings ratio is driven by increases in uncertainty, rather than tightening of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699827
the membrane reactor module design conforms also to basic inherent safety principles. Sources of irreducible uncertainty … uncertainty drivers on the project’s/plant’s value is elucidated using a Monte-Carlo simulation technique that enables the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699835