Using Treasury forecasts of the growth in real total consumers' expenditure a number of issues in macroeconomic forecasting are addressed. By restricting attention to a single variable, a more detailed examination is provided than is otherwise possible, thus complementing more general studies....

Papers by Thomas (1989, 1992) have noted how the often recounted `stylised history' of the consumption function differs from the true sequence of events in its early history. Thomas notes many interesting applied studies and debates which the stylised history overlooks. To these can be added the...

Economic data are regularly revised, leading to a number of alternative vintages being available fo a given data series over a particular time period. This paper confronts this problem, building on the model validity and data accuracy tests of Hendry (1994) to develop the concept of model and...