The electricity reform in Colombia has exhibited gains in terms of reliability but its effects on firms efficiency and service quality have not been clear. Previous studies evaluating the performance of distribution companies after the reform have not found evidence of improvements, although...

This paper investigates the determinants of involuntary insolvency and acquisition in UK small and medium-sized companies. Using a competing risks model and data from the survey database of the ESRC CBR at the University of Cambridge, we draw specific attention to the impact of managerial...

Cyclical components in economic time series are analysed in a Bayesian framework, thereby allowing prior notions about periodicity to be used. The method is based on a general class of unobserved component models that allow relatively smooth cycles to be extracted. Posterior densities of...

This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a large number of countries in the global economy. To this end a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model previously estimated over the 1979Q1-2003Q4 period by Dees, de Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith...

Modelling of conditional volatilities and correlations across asset returns is an integral part of portfolio decision making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations across markets, a trend which has been accentuated...

This paper considers a multivariate t version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), and suggests the use of devolatized returns computed as returns standardized by realized volatilities rather than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC...

The purpose of this paper is to propose an innovative method of evaluating the performance of active fund managers, by introducing to the field of performance measurement the more appealing loss aversion utility theory. We combine the latter to an already established performance measure...

The aim of this paper is to test the performance of the standard version of CAPM in an evolutionary framework. We imagine a heterogeneous population of long-lived agents who invest their wealth according to differential porfolio rules and ask what is the fate of those who happen to behave as...

This paper This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a long-run level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend- or first-difference stationary. The...

This argues for a closer link between the modelling of the long-run relations in applied economics and the intertemporal equilibrium notion from economic theory.