The long-term relationship between the prices of natural gas in the United Kingdom and oil-indexed natural gas in the North West European market is the result of seasonal arbitrage. This paper empirically investigates this long-term relationship and offers two main contributions: (i) To the best...

This paper explores whether natural resource abundance is a curse or a blessing. In order to do so, we firstly develop a theory consistent econometric model, in which we show that there is a long run relationship between real income, the investment rate, and the real value of oil production....

This paper presents substantial new evidence on the competitive process that links together industrial economic and international economics. Our time-series data base concerns manufactured product prices and their domestic and international determinants. We identity cointegrating relationships,...

This paper This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a long-run level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend- or first-difference stationary. The...

This argues for a closer link between the modelling of the long-run relations in applied economics and the intertemporal equilibrium notion from economic theory.

If stock prices followed a random walk, uncertainty about future stock prices would be so great that the observed bias towards equities in long-term investment portfolios would be surprising. The good news is that if, as a growing body of research suggests, there is even a weak tendency for...

In this this paper we combine economic factors that have strong trends and political factors that are stationary in a dynamic, empirical model of the evolution of public policy over a very long period in a stable democracy. The role of variation in the intensity of political competition is the...